A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
